Title:
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSAL LINKAGE BETWEEN SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT IN INDIA: A GRANGER CAUSALITY APPROACH

Authors:
Rizwan Qasim, Dastgir Alam, Jamil Ahmad, Irshad Ahmad and Abid Hussain

Abstract:
The present research paper tries to explore the causal relationship between savings and investment in India using a time series dataset spanning the years 1960 to 2021. The entire dataset is divided into two distinct sub-periods: the pre-liberalization (1960–1990) and the post-liberalization (1991–2021). The empirical analysis is done through correlation matrix, unit root analysis, cointegration analysis, VAR Granger causality, and pairwise Granger causality. The correlation matrix indicates that the association between GDS and GDI is positive throughout the duration and sub-periods. Further, the unit root test outcomes exhibit that the variables are stationary at their first differences. The results from the cointegration analysis establish the existence of a long-term relationship between variables, VAR Granger causality test brings to light a one-way connection from GDS to GDI, whereas, the pairwise Granger causality test validates the findings obtained from the VAR Granger causality approach. Overall, the study concluded that the classical notion of planned savings always being equal to planned investment is not valid even after the liberalization of the Indian economy.

Keywords:
Savings; Investment; Correlation; Granger cointegration; Granger Causality.